Wacky, Wild, Weird, and Wonderful
One author’s perspective on the publishing industry
I’ve done some painstaking research recently on the state of the publishing industry in preparation for workshops I’m leading. Now, I’m no expert like Jane Friedman, but I have acquired some pretty strong opinions about what’s going on out there.
And funnily enough, I think what’s going on is exacerbating a tremendous amount of the self-doubt and anxiety—and perhaps even gaslighting—that countless writers are experiencing.
Here’s a list of head-spinning trends (because they’re so contradictory!) that I’ve picked up on. There are data and heaps of anecdotes to back these up.
The publishing industry is in flux
The agent market is a mess
Most books lose money, but a few make up for all that
More books are available than ever
Fewer people read books than ever
Nobody can predict a bestseller
People keep writing books
I stand by the truth of each of these statements. But when you start throwin’ ‘em together, they don’t make a whole heap o’ sense.
(That twang creeping in is because I keep thinking publishing has become like the ol’ Wild West. Lots of action, not a lot of common-sense. And people get hurt.)
Here’s my idiosyncratic take on three trends that are big contributors to the doubt and confusion swirling around us (and inside us too).
1. There are more ways to publish than ever
This is a blessing and a curse. The upside is you can choose your adventure. Apart from old-fashioned traditional publishing, there’s self-publishing for those who like lots of control; hybrid for those who want to pay to play and get it done; and the somewhat more casual “social” publishing on platforms like this Substack, Medium, and personal blogs. (See Jane Friedman’s publishing path guide for a far more detailed breakdown.)
The downside is that authors have to work harder than ever to sort through the options. Getting educated on this stuff, and then worrying if you’re making the right choice, is a real source of anxiety. There’s so much more to figure out than just getting your story arc right!
2. Listen for the giant sucking sound
Weirdly, as paths to publishing proliferate, the universe of who publishes books, at least by volume, is arguably shrinking. Despite the recent failed merger attempt between Penguin Random House and Simon & Schuster, the Big 5 account for 60%-90% of all books sold. Which means they have an outsized say in which books are bought, promoted, and discussed in popular culture forums.
On top of that, the lucrative end of the market is expanding, with new celebrity publishing imprints cropping up regularly. Jenna Bush Hager has recently joined the ranks of Oprah, Sarah Jessica Parker, Reese Witherspoon, and other big names who acquire titles they can turn into multimedia profit-generators.
When I say “expanding,” I don’t mean opening up to more authors. Not really. There are very narrow pathways for a book to reach a celebrity imprint (picture the eye of a needle). But these are the books that command a vast amount of the media’s attention at a time when outlets for book reviews and the like are shrinking like mad. (I’m not counting TikTok, which is on the verge of being cancelled.)
Wondering why it’s so hard to get your book reviewed? Or noticed?
This is one reason why.
3. What looks like a promise may be a mirage
Literary agents are, with some exceptions, struggling. Most are barraged by thousands of submissions and accept less than 1% of that. Their ability to sell the books they do acquire to publishing house is complicated by the fact that acquisition editors are more cautious than ever. They’re eager to find the closest thing to a sure thing (i.e., a book that will sell in the tens of thousands) and to avoid inflaming cultural sensitivities. Meanwhile, the agents mainly live off commissions that they only earn once a book begins to sell. And that can take years.
I get the sense that agents are generally responding to this tough dynamic by doubling down on advice that leads an author to believe the agents are desperate for their book and if you perfect your query letter, you’ll land an agent.
Neither of those things is true. The upshot is that agents are besieged by even more manuscripts that they can’t possibly accept and authors are more than ever convinced they’ve got just what the agent is looking for—and a perfect query letter to match.
Of course authors still land dream agents who procure them dream book deals.
But that’s not the majority of authors. So don’t believe everything you read.
It’s Not About You But It Would Be Nice If It Were
I’m thinking JUMANJI x AMERICAN PRIMEVIL.
Publishing is wild, busy, adventurous, unpredictable, sometimes dangerous (mentally and economically, if not physically).
Enter at your own risk.
And when you do, keep in mind that you’re not crazy for wanting to publish your book. You’re not stupid because the choices seem so complicated. And you’re not lacking talent because you can’t get traction.
It’s a mad, mad, mad, mad world.